Improving end of life care through early recognition of need: exploring the potential for using predictive modelling in identifying end of life care needs

Document type
Corporate author(s)
Whole Systems Partnership
NHS National End of Life Care Programme
Date of publication
1 February 2013
Health Services, Older Adults, Social Work, Social Care and Social Services
Social welfare
Material type

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In the case of end of life care we know that 59% of people fear dying in hospital and 71% say they would prefer to die at home, and yet 51% of people actually die in hospital1. Whilst for some this is unavoidable, for many it represents the challenge of the system to provide the support and care that people would choose to have.

With 465,000 people dying each year (the majority of whom are over the age of 65) or nearly 1,300 every day, it is likely that hundreds of people each day do not die in the place of their choosing, bringing avoidable stress to themselves and their families.

This report explores the evidence, seeks expert opinion and then provides a direction of travel for the use of predictive modelling in end of life care services. It suggests an iterative and collaborative approach to the development of systems that build on existing good practice in identifying end of life care to help achieve the goals of better care for individuals and a continued increase in the number of people who die in their usual place of residence.