Income and house prices: analysis using customer data

Document type
Wishart, Robert; Swales, Kirby; Kiss, Zsolt
Date of publication
1 November 2018
Housing and Homelessness, Poverty Alleviation Welfare Benefits and Financial Inclusion, Employment
Social welfare
Material type

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This report explores how consumer data on income can be used to predict house prices. It builds on a large body of academic work that has attempted to explain the behaviour of house prices. It makes use of new data about incomes at the small area level.

House price growth is well documented, particularly in the UK. In contrast to much of Europe, the UK has a large proportion of home owners, with housing typically the largest asset that households own. Prior research has shown that the distribution of income is an important factor in predicting house price change.

Changes in house prices, particularly if these changes are not homogenous, therefore plays a big role in the distribution of income and wealth in communities. There is also evidence suggesting that children whose parents live in areas with higher house prices, are likely to be older when they leave home.

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