The RF earnings outlook Q2 2018

Document type
Clarke, Stephen; Cominetti, Nye
Date of publication
13 November 2018
Social Policy, Poverty Alleviation Welfare Benefits and Financial Inclusion, Employment
Social welfare
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In October there was good news on pay: nominal pay grew by 3.1 per cent in the 12 months to August, the fastest growth since the financial crisis (January 2009). The question is whether such (relatively) strong pay growth is likely to be sustained.

Nominal pay growth has been building steadily since early 2017, so this recent data was not a one-off. It comes after a period in which the labour market has been tightening. The unemployment rate remains at a 40-year low and is still falling, as is underemployment, taking us back to pre-crisis levels of tightness. The number of job-to-job moves is increasing, approaching pre-recession levels.

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